Recently, Syria has witnessed the largest wave of protests since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in 2024. In Idlib, the government's center of power, as well as in Aleppo and Hama, crowds protested the decision to abolish fuel subsidies. According to analysts quoted by The New Arab (Newarab.com) recently, the economy remains in decline and people are increasingly angry because the government has failed to address economic grievances.
On September 13, the Syrian government abolished fuel subsidies, citing rising global procurement costs due to the war with Iran . This decision is expected to increase diesel prices by 40% and gasoline prices by 25%. According to UN estimates, 90% of the Syrian population lives below the poverty line, so the majority of the population considers this price increase unacceptable. For more than four days, protesters blocked roads, burned tires, demanded a reversal of the decision, and called for the resignation of Energy Minister Mohammed Al-Bashir.
Double pressure
According to analysts, the increase in fuel prices is due to two simultaneous pressures: escalating global energy prices and the government's liberalization strategy. The increase in energy prices is primarily driven by the war with Iran. Another contributing factor is Ukraine's attack on Russian energy infrastructure, Syria's largest energy supplier. Furthermore, the price increase is also a consequence of the government's economic vision. President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared that Syria is transitioning to a free market economy. To achieve this, the government is streamlining its apparatus, cutting subsidies, and opening up to foreign investment.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Syria's economy will grow by more than 10% in 2026. However, according to Caroline Rose, senior director at the Soufan Center, this growth "will not lead to lower living costs or a reduction in poverty." The abolition of fuel subsidies has triggered a series of price increases, most notably for food. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), 7.2 million Syrians are facing severe food shortages. Rose argues that high fuel costs are also "a consequence of a broken energy system." Syria's energy infrastructure has been ravaged by war and sanctions, and its only oil refinery in Baniyas is undergoing repairs.
For his part, Benjamin Fève, a senior consultant at Karam Shaar Advisory, said that over the past two years, wages have failed to keep pace with the cost of living. The abolition of electricity subsidies in November 2025 had already driven electricity prices up by 6,000%. According to him, there is a growing sense that people's economic situation has deteriorated.
The story of recovery and reality
Mr. Fève noted that the lifting of sanctions, foreign capital inflows, and a stable exchange rate have created a positive picture, but this does not mean that people's disposable income has increased. Many investment memoranda have not materialized into actual projects. Many large projects have yielded little benefit to the people, such as the 5-star Narcissus Hotel in Damascus, announced in August of this year by the Syrian National Investment Fund and Saudi Arabian investors. The $21 billion Jobar reconstruction plan has sparked protests after reports emerged that residents would only receive 50% of the shares in their old homes, and only 30% for unofficial housing.
Meanwhile, Issam Al-Reis, a researcher at ETANA, said the Syrian government did not react harshly to the protests because it understood them to be a "red line" for the people. However, he said the protests were an early warning sign of problems in economic governance. The movement is concentrated in Idlib, where people feel left behind after the government moved its entire administrative apparatus to the capital.
According to analysts, without targeted social support, the burden of reform will continue to fall on the poorest. Ms. Rose argues that even individual subsidies will not break the nationwide spiral of rising living costs.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/cuoc-khung-hoang-kinh-te-cua-syria-post1391029.html
