At a press conference announcing socio-economic statistics for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2026, organized by the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ) on the morning of October 3rd in Hanoi, Ms. Phi Thi Huong Nga - Head of the Industry and Construction Statistics Department (General Statistics Office) - stated that import and export activities increased sharply in the first nine months of the year.
Export turnover reached US$434.3 billion, an increase of 24.5% compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding the target of 15-16% growth for the whole year. With this result, the General Statistics Office assesses that total merchandise export turnover in 2026 is likely to surpass the target set by the National Assembly in Resolution No. 01.
Meanwhile, imports reached $414.7 billion, an increase of 36.7%, resulting in a trade deficit of $19.4 billion, in contrast to the trade surplus of the same period last year.
However, developments in September showed signs of improvement in the trade balance. Exports reached $59.5 billion, an increase of 18.5% compared to the same period last year, while imports increased by 6%. As a result, September recorded a trade surplus of $1.3 billion, contributing to narrowing the cumulative trade deficit for the first nine months.
According to Ms. Nga, the trade deficit should be viewed in the context of strong growth in both exports and imports, reflecting the continued expansion of production, processing, and trade.
In particular, imports increased mainly in product groups serving production. In the first nine months, the group of computers, electronic products and components reached $188.9 billion, an increase of 71.7%, accounting for 41.6% of total import turnover. The group of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached $53.9 billion, an increase of 21.9%.
Raw materials for production accounted for 94.1% of total import value, while consumer goods accounted for only 5.9%. According to the statistics agency, this structure shows that the increase in imports is mainly linked to the input needs of production, rather than an increase in consumer goods imports.
The trend of investing in AI, semiconductors, data infrastructure, and information technology could also increase the demand for importing high-tech equipment and components.
On the export side, the group of computers, electronic products and components reached $123.7 billion, an increase of 59.6% compared to the same period last year. In September alone, exports of this group increased by 42.3% compared to the previous month, making a significant contribution to bringing the trade balance back to a surplus.
Ms. Nga argued that trade deficits should not be assessed solely based on absolute size, but rather on the structure of imported goods and their potential to be transformed into export products in subsequent periods. The significant increase in imports of machinery, equipment, and components could support production expansion and enhance export capacity.
However, the trade deficit of $19.4 billion remains a concern, as the rate of import growth is significantly higher than that of exports. Several key export sectors, especially electronics, are still heavily dependent on imported raw materials and components.
The trade balance between the two sectors shows a significant disparity. The FDI sector recorded a trade surplus of $14.9 billion, while the domestic economic sector had a trade deficit of $34.3 billion. This indicates limitations in input supply capacity, supporting industries, and domestic value added.
"The return of a trade surplus in September is a positive sign, but it's not enough to confirm that the trade deficit trend has ended. In the coming period, it's necessary to continue monitoring the ability to transform imported raw materials and components into export products, while simultaneously promoting supporting industries, increasing the localization rate and domestic production capacity to improve the sustainability of the trade balance," said the Head of the Industry and Construction Statistics Department.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/xuat-sieu-tro-lai-sau-nhieu-thang/20261003111024258
