French President Emmanuel Macron, the rotating chair of the G7 group comprising the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, confirmed on October 2nd that the group had reached an agreement to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel from reserves over the next four months, under the coordination of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the plan, a large quantity of diesel will be released onto the market within the first 20 days. The G7 countries also committed to not imposing restrictions on the export of energy and petroleum products between members; and to efforts to increase the refining capacity of oil facilities.
Bringing both crude oil and diesel from storage to market is significant given the differing pressures on the supply of these two product groups. Crude oil supplements the feedstock for refining operations, while refined diesel can be distributed directly to fuel-hungry markets without further processing. This is also why diesel is prioritized in the initial phase of the plan.
The decision was made amid soaring fuel prices, particularly for diesel, due to the Middle East conflict disrupting oil exploration, refining, and shipping.
Previously, in March 2026, IEA member countries committed to releasing 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. By October 2nd, approximately 325 million barrels, equivalent to over 80% of the committed amount, had been released onto the market.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), the world will consume approximately 102.8 million barrels of oil and liquid fuels per day in 2024. A reserve of 100 million barrels is equivalent to one day of global consumption. However, this reserve will be released in stages to supplement shortfalls in markets where needed, while production and transportation are gradually restored.
Following the G7's move, US President Donald Trump on October 2nd praised European countries' willingness to release fuel from their strategic reserves. He also stated that the US would not ban diesel exports, despite having mentioned this possibility several times before.
“Europe has a lot of diesel fuel and they will contribute significantly to the world, and so will we. We will not impose a ban on diesel exports. That option was never really considered, but what Europe is doing is commendable,” Trump said.
According to the Washington Post, the United States is a major supplier of refined fuel oil on the international market, with average exports of approximately 1.4 million barrels per day. Maintaining exports allows partners, including Europe and Latin America, to continue accessing U.S. diesel amid disruptions to supplies from other production regions.
In Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on October 2nd that Moscow would also consider partially easing restrictions on diesel exports. He affirmed that the domestic market is currently adequately supplied and added that the Russian government is closely monitoring the situation.
Russia imposed export restrictions starting in July 2026 amid disruptions to oil refineries caused by Ukrainian drone attacks. Moscow has indicated that easing restrictions is only possible if domestic supply remains stable and production exceeds demand.
Following the above information, Brent crude oil prices fell 1.1% to $101.20 a barrel. US WTI crude oil dropped 2.3% to $90.70. Diesel futures prices in Europe fell more than 7%. In the US, low-sulfur diesel prices fell 3.7% to $4.47 a gallon (approximately $1.18 a liter).
Observers say the drop in fuel prices shows the positive impact of supply-side compensation, but warn that these changes are only temporary due to unresolved core issues, most notably the disruption to oil refining operations in the Middle East.
According to the IEA, in August 2026, exports of refined petroleum products and LPG from the Gulf region were about 60% lower than in February, while net exports of diesel/gasoil from the Gulf and Russia decreased by a combined 1.6 million barrels per day. These two regions previously accounted for nearly 45% of global seaborne diesel trade.
In Russia, on October 2nd, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that its forces had attacked the Volgograd oil refinery and an oil transport coordination facility in Samara. Ukraine stated that fires broke out at the facilities after the attack, but the extent of the damage is still being verified. This development raises questions about the possibility of Russia soon easing restrictions on diesel exports.
In addition, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for global energy, remains congested. On October 1st, the UK Maritime Trade Authority (UKMTO) reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified object while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on October 2nd that the US plans to deploy additional carrier strike groups and military forces to the Middle East, with the additional troop numbers potentially reaching 10,000, amid President Donald Trump's consideration of resuming attacks on Iran.
According to the IEA, the US-Iran confrontation, along with attacks in the Persian Gulf and the Bab el-Mandeb shipping lane near Yemen, continues to hinder the restoration of oil flows. The agency forecasts that supply from the Middle East may not fully recover until 2027.
Source: https://cand.vn/g7-xa-kho-dau-thi-truong-nang-luong-van-chua-het-suc-ep-post823924.html
